Picking apart the 2025 BMW HK Derby

Zac Purton returns with Massive Sovereign after the 2024 Derby

It's an unusual Derby. There are no standouts, just promises to stand out. There's no Zac Purton in the race, for the first time since 2012. And it has been a campaign towards the race with plenty of stumbles along the way for the lead contenders.

Before we run through those, just a couple of statistic elements to the race.

One of the big talking points before the Derby is whether horses have previous experience/success at 2000m but a majority of HK Derby winners have not even raced at the distance previously.

Another point of discussion will be the draw, since the 2000m start at Sha Tin is tough - with 100m to the first turn, which then goes for almost 600m.

Since the Derby was changed to 2000m in the year 2000, no horse has won from gate 1 or 5, all the same, with the 'winningest' gates 3 and 10, housing four winners each, ahead of 9 and 14, with three wins each.

As to the personnel with past successes - John Size has trained 3 Derby winners, Tony Cruz and Caspar Fownes two each, Francis Lui, Dennis Yip and David Hayes have one each, with Hayes' winner Elegant Fashion 22 years ago, during his first career as a HK trainer.

Amongst the jockeys, winners are harder to find still, unless 2-time winner Purton conjures up a late ride.

Hugh Bowman won on Werther and Furore,and Joao Moreira is also a dual winner with Sky Darci and Rapper Dragon, while Alexis Badel, Karis Teetan, Ryan Moore and Christophe Soumillon have a win each, the champion Belgian rider pairing with Viva Pataca 19 years ago.In terms of what's required, historically the winner has more often than not won last start and has overwhelmingly run in the first three...but, alas, it isn't bomb proof. Voyage Bubble (sixth), Romantic Warrior (fourth) and Sky Darci (seventh) all missed a place the start before winning 3 of the past 4 Derbys.

Some fans pin their hopes each year to the handicapper's picks - the top ranked by handicap mark and a horse with a 100 handicap mark is a strong contender.

This year, there is only one and there has been a trend to fewer of them year by year.

Linked to that has been a trend to Derby runners averaging fewer starts overseas before coming to HK before running in the race, so they are arriving on lower marks.

A few years back, they were also more lightly-raced in HK but that has reversed lately,

with those starting in Class 4 as new horses or off lower Class 3 ratings, as horses with form overseas, having more to achieve before making the Derby field.

This year's Derby field averages an handicapper's rating of 83.4 but when you look back 20 years, the average rating of a Derby runner was in triple figures.

It's partly some changes in handicapping practices but also typical of changes in the types of horses who are bought for the race now - few arrive well squeezed but with serious Group credentials, as they once did, and are more often lightly-raced and open to improvement now.

In terms of our own ratings, this table shows the kind of levels required by the winners, though we have had some low rating editions where the race was sullied by very slow tempos, often coinciding with significant interference events that muddied results.

It doesn't have to be a negative on the horses themselves.

Voyage Bubble won a low-rating Derby two years ago where it was walking pace most of the way but he has certainly turned out a star, while Fay Fay didn't achieve much after his very slow, low-rating 2012 Derby win, but behind him were the likes of Military Attack, Dominant, Dan Excel and Liberator, all subsequent G1 performers.

So what lies ahead in 2025? Most pundits would characterise this as an even Derby, a stage in search of a star to a large extent, with most coming to the race sporting ratings that wouldn't be competitive In the average Derby.

RUBYLOT first suggested he might be above average last year, posting 89 as a mid-season 3yo down the straight though that was his season peak. It's fair to say he mixed it up thereafter, often victim of his own tactical shortcomings. Returned this season with a booming 97 over 1200m when he overturned the much-hyped 1.3 fav Bottomuptogether and that remains the second best figure this season from any 4yo not called Ka Ying Rising. Like his 3yo season, though, he has established a peak that is well above his other runs, despite running 92, 91 and 91 at his last three starts including the last-start Classic Cup success. In another year, he would just be one of the chances but this year it makes him one of the big contenders, especially knowing he does have that capacity to go higher.

MY WISH Terrific little horse in the hands of second-season trainer Mark Newnham, who has been shooting the lights out this season in general. My Wish is hard to knock and doesn’t need much comment - peaked at 92 in wins 1400m C3 and Classic Mile before he got the perfect trip in the 1800m Classic Cup and, although second, returned an 87 figure. There has always been some query about him staying beyond a mile but he is tough and genuine, tactically adept and tries his heart out so he can still run well on that basis - in those aspects, he resembles the 2021 winner, Sky Darci. He probably just needs to get back to his best to be the winner and the query is him doing it at this distance.

JOHANNES BRAHMS

Had four juvenile runs in Ireland and the UK for Aidan O’Brien under the same name, with a minor debut win and placings in Listed and G2 races followed. His major advertisement was the G2 second to Lake Forest, who went to Sydney 18 months later to win the rich Golden Eagle, but it all looked sound enough to make him a nice prospect on arrival at Sha Tin and, to some extent, he still looks a nice prospect with some blue sky to him. Despite 2 wins and 3 placings from 7 local starts, he has had excuses in all of them – even the victories came under difficulties, badly held up at a vital stage in one and racing wide in the other. In his latest third in the Classic Cup, he was being unlucky not to get at least much closer after being stuck inside the winner, Rubylot, at the top of the straight, having to wait for him to go before being able to get clear room, then finishing off the 1800m as well as any runner, despite having pulled in the early part of the race. While his best figure so far in Hong Kong is a 90 rating, nearly all of his races have produced a similar figure despite the difficulties, and he gives every impression there is a 95 waiting to happen the day that everything falls into place - and that would win him the Derby.

STUNNING PEACH

Formerly ran as a 2yo under the name Islandsinthestream, with Joseph O’Brien. Looked a very interesting proposition on arrival in Hong Kong as, though his wins as a 2yo were minor events, his other three starts were two seconds to Henry Longfellow in G2 and G1 events and a runner-up to Los Angeles in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in France over 2000m. To all the world he looked a Derby contender and his early form supported that view, catching the eye first-up in Hong Kong, then followed a second and a win over 1800m in C3, rating 91 in the win with scope for better considering his overseas form suggested a 95 peak. This season hasn’t altogether gone to plan, with a spectacularly-unlucky first-up defeat over 1600m, then he pulled up lame when beaten favourite in December. He got back on the track nearly 7 weeks later, third under a big weight in a 2000m C2 in January behind Noisy Boy - not unlucky but seeming likely to come on for it but that hasn’t happened. He was sound but uninspiring in a G3 behind Chancheng Glory then the market was looking for more in the Classic Cup when every chance rating only 84 when he should have done more in the final 200m. Gives the impression that there is a better horse than we’ve seen but the one we have seen, especially the one we’ve seen since he had the lameness in December, needs to improve.

BUNDLE AWARD was a really likeable horse who won 3 of 4 as Prince Prawn in Melbourne and has carried on in the same vein in Hong Kong, not running a bad race in five starts, including two victories and culminating in his Class 2 1800m win two weeks ago to claim his place in this race. His best rating in Melbourne was 89, something he replicated winning in Class 3 in January but has not surpassed. His latest win was impressive to the eye, coming from last at the 350m mark and with the tempo somewhat against him doing that, but the race rated moderately and he carried a very light handicap weight. He is in form, he's a very genuine type and is in the top stable in town but certainly has to find more.

PACKING ANGEL Until he ran in the Classic Cup, this looked the horse who might emerge late as the standout for this race but, like other similar candidates this season, he failed to live up to that billing. Unraced on arriving in HK, Packing Angel ran a fair debut as a 3yo but was more impressive after a summer break, stringing together three good wins in different circumstances in December-January in Class 4 then Class 3, posting a 94 rating in the last of them. Those were all over 1400m but longer was never considered an issue as he is by the Melbourne Cup winner, Shocking. With that breeding note, some form momentum and the return of Joao Moreira, specifically for him when his engaged rider Zac Purton was injured in a fall, Packing Angel was a confidently-backed favourite for the 1800m Classic Cup where victory would have assured him of favouritism for the Derby too. To be fair, he ran a decent race, beaten just over a length and a half in fourth, but, unlike some other runners, he got a perfect race, presented to win then his final 200m was tame. What to think? Was it his first run beyond 1400m that sorted him out? Considering the speed he had shown in shorter races, is he more of a sprinter anyway? Breeding certainly isn’t everything – one of the best sons of Shocking we have had in HK was a short course flying machine. His 86 rating in the Classic Cup doesn’t put this Derby beyond him if he is tougher for that experience over more ground and he runs closer to his previous numbers, but, considering Rubylot and Johannes Brahms beat him home with less than perfect in-race set-ups, it wasn’t encouraging.

MICKLEY Won 3 of 5 in the UK under the same name, including the Brittania Stakes, a race that has produced some good imports for HK over the years so it always gets attention. After two starts in HK for champion handler John Size, he was already many people’s idea of the Derby favourite. A nice debut, a strong-finishing win at 1600m and Mickley was on his way, or at least that was the impression he gave. Third start he was 12th as a favourite but never clear and a complete forgive but, while the unlucky tag was wheeled out again next time when fourth, the gaps did seem to to be going as fast as he was and when he backed up a week later over 2000m, it was a sound rather than exceptional effort. He again should have finished closer from back in the field in the Classic Mile when fifth then had an internal bleeding issue in a Class 2 mile before he was a touch wide so had an excuse in the Classic Cup but probably could have done more than finishing last. Along the way, top rider Hugh Bowman initially committed then jumped off but Ryan Moore, who was aboard last time, sticks. The gloss is well off him and a lack of tactical pace isn't a great help but he is not be out of it on his better efforts.

NOISY BOY Had the same name in Australia in 10 starts as a 3yo, producing a minor 1550m win, some well-beaten appearances at long odds in top grade and his highlight, a G2 second in the Tulloch Stakes at Rosehill – a lead-up to the Australian Derby but a race that can run hot and cold in terms of quality. To the yard of last year's Derby winner, Dennis Yip, he brought a peak rating we assessed at 88 and has yet to match that in HK. He posted wins in C3 over Happy Valley 2200m and Sha Tin 2000m in December-January, sitting back and running on behind a strong tempo that assisted him, and managed an 87 rating from the latter. Since ridden upside down pushing forward in a sharp, but not brutal, tempo in the Classic Cup and finished at the tail of the field. That was forgivable, given the tactics, but still has more to find than we’ve seen, or suspected, if he is to be a player here. Often referred to as “one of those sure to run a strong 2000m” and that and the booking of Christophe Soumillon, a Derby winner on Viva Pataca 19 years ago, are his main recommendations.

Cap Ferrat

CAP FERRAT One of the most interesting runners despite never having won a race, either in 3 starts in Hong Kong or as a more fully--explored youngster with Chris Waller in Australia. Down under, he had 13 winless starts but a G1 second to Tom Kitten in the Spring Champion Stakes and a length third behind the subsequent Australian Derby quinella, Riff Rocket and Ceowulf, in the G1 Rosehill Guineas, both at 2000m. So, despite his lack of a victory, he landed in Hong Kong with a prospective 93 rating on our scale and went close to that on debut when he and Mickley fought out a 1600m Class 3 in mid-December. Since, Cap Ferrat has been out only twice – caught wide 4 lengths away in the Classic Mile, then sent forward early in the well-run Classic Cup before a fading ninth. The early speed in that Classic Cup had been expected to be moderate, so the tactical change was probably not unreasonable, but, firstly, several others had that same idea and the pace was faster than average, and, secondly, Cap Ferrat, reacted badly and fought rider Craig Williams much of the way. All in all, a forgive run. So he comes to the Derby with only his HK debut and Australian form as a guide but it’s enough to make him a chance in a non-vintage crop.

STEPS AHEAD Handy type who had failed to miss a place only once in 10 starts – and even then when extremely wide in a fast-run race in January – before every chance in the Classic Cup, getting a dream rails trip off the speed, presented at the right time and beaten 3 lengths, rating 84. He has rated as high as 90 at 1400m but his win two starts ago at 1800m rated 86 and neither that nor his latest suggest he’s better suited at longer events.

CALIFORNIATOTALITY Caught the eye second start as a 3yo with a 90 rating in C4 running on 1400m and even then looked like he would want longer but was able to string together a series of good efforts slowly-run 1600m racing on pace and won twice, then was similar this season winning 1600m C4 then 1800m C3 up in speed, with sound rather than spectacular ratings and has never quite been able to get back to the 90 figure from last season. Been consistent, did some work early stages Classic Cup pushing forward wide draw before finishing 8th and rated 81. Can improve on that and is in a legendary yard with Tony Cruz, who rode 4 Derby winners and has trained two - 2004 Lucky Owners and 2008 Helene Mascot - but this guy just looks a level behind the serious contenders.

MARKWIN Unraced and somewhat unheralded on arrival in HK, he burst on the scene at his Class 4 debut when unlucky not to win, stuck in traffic with the tempo against him but flashing late to go down in a photo and producing a 90 rating – high for any debutant. His 8 starts since have included two wins in Class 4 and Class 3 and solid efforts in defeat but what they have not included is any advance on that first rating. His numbers have stayed close behind that most of the time, even when circumstances have worked against him, as they did when beaten 4 lengths in the Classic Mile after trouble in running and some internal bleeding issues. His consistency is admirable and he has a nice turn of foot, though beaten in that department last time when Bundle Award came from behind him to comfortably out-run Markwin over 1800m. With the right trip, he may have more to come and it wouldn’t surprise to see him run a race but perhaps a win is asking too much.

LO RIDER Had 4 starts in Ireland as Sharinay and his form was handy but unspectacular there with 2 wins and a second from 4 starts, but it’s the kind of form that can see unexplored young horses develop into something good with the extra time they get in HK before running in a Derby at four. He has not won in HK but has not run a bad race in 5 starts for Caspar Fownes. He has had a few issues getting cleanly out at the start, including his latest behind Bundle Award, though it must be said the winner there still gave him a start and a beating and so did Markwin. We projected his peak overseas to a 91 rating on our HK scale, which would make him a decent fringe player, especially if he jumped well and was able to use his tactical pace, but hasn’t got near that yet, rating 86 when runner-up to Steps Ahead two runs ago after appearing to get every chance.     

BEAUTY ALLIANCE The late emerger in the field with wins last two starts but ratings that would make him a fringe player at best in most years. The 88 figure from his C4 1800m win was his peak and short of what’s required, even this year, but he does look like he will stay. Impressive to the eye winning in C3 a week later at HV but with a lightish weight in a low-rating, uncompetitive race that was just a dash from the 600m. The biggest things in his favour are some tactical adaptability, the champion trainer and he has hit form at the right time.